By SFBBO Director of Regional Strategies Dr. Nathan Von Schmidt, Ph.D

I’m excited to announce that California’s Fifth Climate Change Assessment has just been released!
You can read it on the Assessment Website: https://climateassessment.ca.gov/.
Huge in scope, this series of reports comprehensively covers California’s nine regions (regional reports) plus statewide synthesis (statewide summary) and special topical areas (statewide topical reports) focused on environmental justice and marginalized communities.
This Fifth Assessment builds on past state assessments by updating the core reviews of climate science and vulnerabilities and undertaking a major effort to engage directly with local communities and California’s Native American Tribes in order to uplift their adaptation efforts to the state level. Since the cancellation of the federal National Climate Change Assessment, this report represents the most cutting-edge and comprehensive climate change assessment in the country.
SFBBO was a major contributor to this assessment under the banner of our new Climate Change program. I created and ran the statewide analysis workgroup that analyzed the climate change projections to understand how increasing temperatures and intensifying precipitation extremes were impacting communities and ecosystems across California’s nine regions. Because of this work, for the first time all of California’s nine regions have a consistent analysis framework and set of measures to allow state-wide comparison.
In addition, I lead-authored the Central Coast regional report, with a special emphasis on climate forecast and natural ecosystems, outreach to California Native American tribes, and listening sessions to migrant farmworkers on the mid-peninsula to understand their climate vulnerabilities.
Of course, SFBBO’s leading role in the assessment ensured birds would get their due attention! The most significant climate threats were related to our coastal ecosystems:
- Tidal marsh species like Ridgway’s Rail are imperiled as tidal marsh is projected to drown under sea level rise.
- Coast-nesting species like Black Oystercatchers and Snowy Plovers are even more imperiled, as they often occupy cliffs and cliff-backed beaches that have no space for coastal retreat from the rising seas.
These species’ habitats are therefore likely to shrink.
The report also highlights how the widespread collapse of kelp forests due to extreme marine heatwaves – which appear poised to strike again with the “super El Niño” now underway – have had cascading impacts on these marine systems, which depends on kelp wrack washing ashore to form the base of the coastal food web. These events have also caused major impacts to our fisheries, including the closure of red abalone fishery which was just extended to 2036 due to a failure of populations to recover.
In the face of such dire threats, however, the report highlights good news: We have solutions, and they’re being led by California’s Native American Tribes!

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) have been shown to help kelp forests recover more quickly from marine heatwaves. They appear to do this by protecting predators of sea urchins from over-fishing, which prevents the sea urchin populations from exploding during marine heatwaves and stripping kelp forests bare.
I worked with Chumash tribes of the Channel Islands to highlight their work establishing the Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary in 2022, stretching from the Channel Islands north along the Santa Barbara Coast, which follows an innovative new federal-tribal co-stewardship framework: https://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/chumash-heritage/
Within this broader area, Chumash tribes are still working to establish two areas with even stricter state-level protections, Mishopshno (https://www.mishopshnompa.org/) and Point Sal (https://www.pointsalmpa.org/).

I attended the recent state climate conference and presented these findings to the decision makers in Sacramento to build momentum behind these key tribal-led marine protection and climate adaptation efforts for California’s coast.
SFBBO is working to adapt our ecosystems to climate change here in San Francisco Bay as well.
Major investments in tidal marsh restoration, such as our work on the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, are projected to create tidal marshes resilient to sea level rise.
Similar efforts are being carried out across the California Coast, with the reports highlighting other major efforts like the ongoing restoration of Elkhorn Slough in Monterey Bay (https://elkhornslough.org/reserve/tidal-wetland-program/).
Restoration ecologists from Elkhorn Slough recently visited our Restoration Project to speak with SFBBO staff about how to inform their restoration designs. The remaining dry salt pannes within the Restoration Project that our Plover and Tern program helps manage and monitor provide key Snowy Plover habitat that is protected from the rising seas by levees.
We’ll discuss more of these findings in the coming months as the report rollout continues with brochures and special Birdy Hour talks. Stay tuned!





















